Sunday, September 5, 2010

This Week's Word on the Democrats Word A Week Calendar: 'Firewall'

And the media seems to have picked up on it as well:

Smoke on the Firewall for Senate Dems?
As one of the hottest summers on record begins easing into fall, the political heat has yet to subside. And that has Senate Democrats sweating states they once thought they had made in the shade.

Democrats knew they had trouble in states where their elected incumbents had resigned (Illinois, Delaware, Colorado), retired (Indiana, North Dakota) or lost the primary (Pennsylvania). They knew they had two more incumbents staggering under terrible poll numbers (Nevada, Arkansas).

But even if all eight of these seats were to be lost, and even if they were to capture no new seats from the GOP, the Democrats reasoned they could still hold the majority.

That "firewall theory" was based on the belief that the rest of the majority's current 59 seats would remain in the hands of Democrats or affiliated independents.

But now there's smoke sighted along the firewall as well. Recent polls in California, Washington and Wisconsin show three more Democratic veterans, all first elected in 1992, are tied, trailing or only slightly ahead of their Republican challengers
It isn't just the Senate that the 'Firewall' phrase is being applied to, either. House Democrats in competitive districts appear to be scattering whenever President Obama is in town while the DCCC is trying to figure out who's campaign can be salvaged.

Democrats Trying to Build Firewall Around Strongest Cadidates
Races that are believed to have particularly vulnerable Democrats include those of newcomers who won Republican seats during the last two pro-Democratic election cycles -- like Betsey Markey of Colorado, Tom Perriello of Virginia, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland -- as well as more senior members, like John Spratt of South Carolina and Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, according to the Times.
I suspect there are a few more names on that list as well- the Democrats problems clearly are more widespread than a five or six competitive districts.

Also worth noting, the non-partisan Charlie Cook Political Report last week made 17 updates to House, Senate and Gubenetorial elections. ALL 17 were in favor of the GOP:
•WYOMING Governor: Likely Republican to Solid Republican (9/02/10)
•TENNESSEE Governor: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (9/02/10)
•PENNSYLVANIA Governor: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
•OREGON Governor: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
•WEST VIRGINIA Senate: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
•OHIO Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
•ARKANSAS Senate: Toss Up to Lean Republican (9/02/10)
WISCONSIN District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
WASHINGTON District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
TEXAS District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
NORTH CAROLINA District 11: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
MICHIGAN District 9: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
ILLINOIS District 17: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
FLORIDA District 22: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (9/02/10)
COLORADO District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)
ARIZONA District 1: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (9/02/10)

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