Remember THE LIST from last week where I included the caveat about how races categorized by the Cook Political Report as 'Leaning D' might actually more favorable to the GOP than it would appear at first blush?
Looks like this could also apply to some races that were believed to be completely safe for Democrat incumbents. As I was compiling THE LIST, I came across some reports of Republican challengers seemingly gaining ground on entrenched Democrat incumbents in solidly blue districts. Lest you think this was idle happy-talk from hopelessly out-funded Republican candidates, the Cook Report (which apparently didn't get their reputation by getting suckered by idle campaign bluster) has changed the ratings of at least five Democrat-heavy districts from 'Solid D' to 'Likely D'.
These representatives would include Raul Grijalva (AZ-7), who is facing a spirited challenge from rocket scientist Ruth McClung after the Congressman called for a boycott of his own state immediately after the Arizona state legislature passed SB-1070.
Last month, 30-year Congressman and House Financial Services Committee chair Barney Frank (MA-4) arranged to have Bill Clinton campaign on his behalf in the Bay State, a move many observers feel would not be necessary if his GOP opponent- 35 year old ex-Marine Sean Bielat- was closing the gap in the polls.
Maurice Hinchey (NY-22) could also be in danger of losing his gerrymandered district going up against what some say is his first serious challenge to his seat since 1992 in former teacher and congressional aide George Phillips.
Over in Minnesota, internal polling has shown Jim Oberstar (MN-8) only a few points ahead of challenger Chip Cravaack. Naturally, this most recent poll has the 18-term Democrat crying foul.
Of course, it's entirely possible that all of the above challengers will end up losing in a landslide. However the fact that people are having discussions about normally reliable Democrat bastions as though they were swing states or swing districts would mean that resources being drawn off from more competitive districts for the Democrats, putting them at a disadvantage.
And given the way they've been governing since January 2007, I wouldn't lose much sleep if all of the aforementioned embattled Democrats found themselves out of work in January.
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